20 Years.
That’s how long we have until general artificial intelligence arrives. Intellectuals such as Sam Harris, who are informed on the topic, have given us that time frame and the implications of AI’s arrival. He recently appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience and the show concluded with a long discussion about the power of an AI like this. The implications can be revolutionary and simultaneously terrifying.
Artificial intelligence is already being developed and used today. Current versions however, are made for one specific purpose and to accomplish a specific task. A famous example is IBM’s Watson which appeared on the popular television show Jeopardy and more recently has been put to use in the medical field. These current forms of AI use a process called machine learning. This gives computers the ability to learn or improve their ability to do a certain task without being specifically programmed to do so.
The general AI Harris and other intellectuals speak of will be based on this fundamental ability. Instead of improving at one specific task however, it would be able to theoretically improve at and accomplish any task we ask of it. The potential of artificial intelligence is astonishing. Harris explained the power of such a computer’s existence eloquently in his conversation with Rogan.
“Imagine building the perfect labour saving technology. Where you can build a machine that can build a machine to do any human labour. Powered by sunlight more or less for the cost of raw materials… You aren’t just talking about blue collar labour but also the kind you and I do, scientific labour. A machine that comes up with good ideas.”
Such a creation has the power to completely change life as we know it. To completely eliminate the need for humans to work, and this is why the power of AI is both so inspiring and horrifying. Harris elaborates on the potential consequences
“In the right political and economic system this would cancel any need for people to have to work to survive. There would be enough of everything to go around. Then the question would be do we have the right current political and economic system to spread that wealth? Or would we find ourselves in some horrendous arms race and situation of wealth inequality unlike any we’ve ever seen. It’s not in place now…. If Facebook built this computer tomorrow or a rumour spread that they had, what are the implications for Russia and China? It would be rational for them to nuke California. Having this device is a winner take all scenario. You win the world.”
His statements exemplify why artificial intelligence will be an issue of importance for everyone in the future. The good thing is, like with all technologies, we will most likely not make this leap all at once and Facebook won’t announce its creation tomorrow. There will be waves of improvement. These will act as steps where we can begin to change things before the inevitable arrival of this AI.
Society must then ensure that we develop the political and economic systems to utilize this technology for the benefit of everyone in the time we have before general artificial intelligence arrives. The current systems would cause mass unemployment and create a world of chaos and inequality like never seen before. Yet it simultaneously has the power to create unprecedented wealth making a real world utopia humanity could only ever dream of. The disparity between the two outcomes may have never been greater and the result never more important.
The technology is coming, it is no longer a matter of if but simply a matter of when. As a society and as a species we best be prepared when it does. If you think the internet changed the world, you haven’t seen anything yet.
